Blue line shows the predicted mean number of movements obtained with a mix of constant and linear splines of calendar days with two knots at the major events of interest in determining lockdowns of different intensity (February 23, 2020 – dashed gray line, and March 8, 2020 – solid gray line).
We fitted time-series data using Newey–West regression models.Day-specific absolute numbers of people movements (blue dots) and SARS-CoV-2 positive cases (red dots) in the provinces bordering Lodi – i.e. Another endpoint of interest would be the total number of infections occurring in a specific area. of Lodi in the region of Lombardy. This delay might be related to the relatively low incidence and prevalence of the infection in these provinces. Changes in testing eligibility over time or space would have influenced our results about the time to peak period, but these changes were minor, as testing followed guidance from the National Institute of Health.
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On the other hand, these admissions for COVID-19 were not independently validated and therefore their completeness is unknown. An exception was Veneto, which expanded testing also to some asymptomatic individuals since the beginning of the outbreak [These findings should be considered specific for the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in Italy and may not necessarily apply to outbreaks based on other viruses, having different transmission features, or occurring in other places characterized by a different social structure, family structure, culture, and work habits. Testing was restricted to symptomatic individuals who had suspected contact with an infected person. We fitted time-series data using Newey–West regression models.Number of total SARS-CoV-2 positive cases and tests (available only by region) through April 6, 2020, peak of the curve after the tight lockdown date (March 8, 2020), percent reduction in people daily movements at peak date, and interval between lockdown and peak date (days).Most recent data available from Italian National Institute of Statistic Lodi province, the one from which the Italian outbreak started, had already experienced its tight lockdown in a part of its territory (‘red zone’) on February 23, 2020 from which the figure of 13 is computed, while the remainder of the territory implemented the lockdown on March 8, 2020.Most recent data available from Italian National Institute of Statistic Lodi province, the one from which the Italian outbreak started, had already experienced its tight lockdown in a part of its territory (‘red zone’) on February 23, 2020 from which the figure of 13 is computed, while the remainder of the territory implemented the lockdown on March 8, 2020.Days until the peak of the SARS-CoV-2 positive cases and percent reduction of people movements for provinces within the three investigated regions (A); days until the peak of SARS-CoV-2 positive cases and SARS-CoV-2 infection prevalence on March 8, 2020 in the study provinces (B).
The news and stories that matters, delivered weekday mornings.Malou Visco Comandini, Nancy Ing and Hernan Muñoz RattoPeople flow out of San Giovanni subway station in Rome on Monday as lockdown restrictions are relaxed. Confirmed COVID-19 cases in Bergamo and Lodi, Italy Image: Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science, University of Oxford & Nuffield College, UK This week, both Italy and Spain reported their largest daily increases in COVID-19-related deaths. Italy underestimated the spread of the virus at first.
“The coronavirus is not finished in one day.”Emanuel Spadaro, 36, who was out for a walk at the park with his young son, agreed, and said he was glad the government was lifting the lockdown in phases.“The virus is still around,” said Spadaro, a mathematics professor.
FF, AG and GM downloaded and processed cellphone movements. day of peak occurrence – red triangle). In the second stage, we examined the relation between the proportional reduction in daily movements during lockdown compared with the period before restrictions were imposed, before the first lockdown. Percentiles of time to peak, censored for provinces that did not reach the peak by April 6, 2020, were derived from the Kaplan-Meier method. These maps show why the country’s nationwide lockdown came too late to contain it. Italy is turning “a new page,” the country’s prime minister said ahead of some 4 million people returning to work Monday as Europe’s longest “A new page is beginning, and we will have to write it together with faith and responsibility,” Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte said in a Facebook post Sunday. ] imposed a tighter, nearly complete lockdown on two hot spots with the highest COVID-19 incidence in Italy (so called ‘red zones’): ten municipalities in the Lodi province in Lombardy and one in the Padua province in Veneto. This was followed by an extension of the red zone up to the whole country, giving rise to the so-called “Italian lockdown”, from March 10 up to the end of April 2020. The two series were modeled using the Newey–West estimator.Day-specific absolute numbers of people movements (blue dots) and SARS-CoV-2 positive cases (red dots) in Lodi province (Lombardy region) during February 1, 2020-April 6, 2020. Red line shows the predicted mean number of new COVID-19 cases obtained with restricted cubic splines of calendar days with 5 knots to identify the maximum predicted value (i.e. “I think it’s a risk reopening everything.”The small changes will mean big lifestyle improvements for 60 million people who have The government first relaxed its social distancing measures last month, reopening some stores. day of peak occurrence – red triangle). Finally, we acknowledge that the time to peak endpoint we computed following the implementation of a tight lockdown is not the only endpoint suitable to assess lockdown benefits.
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