The Committee for Perth say new projections that at least 3.9 million people will call Perth home by 2050 - and possibly as many as 5.4 million - should be a "game changer" in how the city is planned. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the Australian population currently totals 24.9 million people – however Australia was not predicted to reach this milestone for another 30 years. Where townhouses and apartments reign supreme and the battle-axe subdivision has gone the same way as fly-in, fly-out roster and the 45-minute drive to work. The populations of Sydney and Melbourne are forecast to swell by 60 to 80 per cent to reach about 8 million by 2050, while Perth’s population is poised to more than double to 4.6 million. With Perth’s population having just hit 2 million, plans are in progress to cater for the expected 3.5 million population by 2050. New population projections suggest Western Australian planning documents were realistic in working to projections of a combined Perth & Peel region with 3.5 million residents by 2050.The end of the mining boom led commentators to query assumptions, in the Perth & Peel@3.5 million suite of planning documents, that Perth will need 800,000 new homes by 2050.The projections are based on assumed levels of births, deaths and migration, based on long and short-term trends and future scenarios dictated by research in Australia and elsewhere, from 2018-2066.The bureau created 72 scenarios showing the complete range of possibilities but selected three possible outcomes, representing the middle of the range, for its major analysis.The ABS projected WA’s population would increase slowly – from 0.7-1.7 per cent per year – to 2.8-3 million in 2027, depending on interstate migration.The full range of possibilities for WA 2066 is 3.6-5.9 million, but the three selected series project 4.5-4.9 million.Growth for the rest of the state is smaller, with Perth expected to take the bulk; the proportion of WA people expected to live in the Greater Perth region expected to rise from 79 per cent now to 81 per cent within just 10 years.Currently, Greater Perth (including Peel) has about 2 million people.The outer ranges of projections were 2.9 at lowest and 4 million at highest by 2052.But the three selected series project roughly 3.3-3.6 million Greater Perth residents by 2052, which accords with assumptions behind the Perth & Peel@3.5 million strategic planning frameworks released earlier this year.“While the forecasts help to indicate when we may reach a particular target, our focus has primarily been at how we develop housing opportunities adjacent to major public transport routes and within the existing urban corridors,” Planning Minister Rita Saffioti said.“This means expanding the public transport system to reflect the current approved growth corridors and areas through Metronet, and also developing new housing precincts adjacent to existing public transport nodes.“We also will feed any revised population forecasts into the review of the planning frameworks which are due in four years’ time, but for the short to medium term we will continue to focus on a more strategic growth of our suburbs.”The three selected series projected 3.7-4.3 million people for Greater Perth by 2066.In 2016-17, more people left WA to seek their fortunes elsewhere than came to WA from interstate, meaning a net loss of 13,900 people.And only 12,600 more people migrated here from overseas than departed overseas, a low net gain not even enough to make up for the loss to other states.All projections show the low overseas migration figure bouncing back.
WELCOME to Perth in 2050, population four million (at least). Reducing the urban sprawl and introducing high rise living for existing suburbs is one of the main focuses of the Barnett Government’s Perth Future Plan, but limiting the city boundaries is not on the agenda.
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